K
Kathleen Martin
Guest
In December 2020, we published a list of 10 predictions about the world of artificial intelligence in the year 2021.
With 2021 now coming to a close, let’s revisit these predictions to see how things actually played out. There is much to learn from these retrospectives about the state and trajectory of AI today.
Prediction 1: Both Waymo and Cruise will debut on the public markets.
Outcome: Wrong
As of the beginning of this year, no autonomous vehicle company had ever gone public. 2021 is the year that that all changed.
TuSimple, Embark and Aurora have all debuted on public markets this year. Argo is deep in preparations to go public. Plus.ai and Pony.ai both announced SPAC deals this year (though Pony.ai has since shelved its plans). Credible rumors are swirling about upcoming public market debuts for other autonomous players.
But Waymo and Cruise are not included on that list.
Given that Waymo and Cruise are the most well-capitalized of all AV companies, it makes sense that they would not necessarily be the first ones to need to tap public markets for more capital.
Still, while our timing proved premature, we expect both of these companies to eventually be publicly traded.
Prediction 2: A political deepfake will go mainstream in the U.S., fueling widespread confusion and misinformation.
Outcome: Wrong
Deepfakes, which just a couple years ago were an oddity on the fringes of the Internet, have thrust themselves into mainstream public consciousness in 2021.
From an Anthony Bourdain documentary to viral Tom Cruise clips, from a widely condemned new pornography app to a bizarre story about a cheerleader’s vindictive mom in small-town America, deepfakes are rapidly becoming a part of our societal milieu.
But no deepfake has yet fooled large numbers of viewers and caused meaningful real-world damage in the realm of U.S. politics. Let’s hope it stays that way in 2022.
Continue reading: https://www.forbes.com/sites/robtoews/2021/12/05/2021-ai-predictions-what-we-got-right-and-wrong/?sh=f0a18ce1f8d8
With 2021 now coming to a close, let’s revisit these predictions to see how things actually played out. There is much to learn from these retrospectives about the state and trajectory of AI today.
Prediction 1: Both Waymo and Cruise will debut on the public markets.
Outcome: Wrong
As of the beginning of this year, no autonomous vehicle company had ever gone public. 2021 is the year that that all changed.
TuSimple, Embark and Aurora have all debuted on public markets this year. Argo is deep in preparations to go public. Plus.ai and Pony.ai both announced SPAC deals this year (though Pony.ai has since shelved its plans). Credible rumors are swirling about upcoming public market debuts for other autonomous players.
But Waymo and Cruise are not included on that list.
Given that Waymo and Cruise are the most well-capitalized of all AV companies, it makes sense that they would not necessarily be the first ones to need to tap public markets for more capital.
Still, while our timing proved premature, we expect both of these companies to eventually be publicly traded.
Prediction 2: A political deepfake will go mainstream in the U.S., fueling widespread confusion and misinformation.
Outcome: Wrong
Deepfakes, which just a couple years ago were an oddity on the fringes of the Internet, have thrust themselves into mainstream public consciousness in 2021.
From an Anthony Bourdain documentary to viral Tom Cruise clips, from a widely condemned new pornography app to a bizarre story about a cheerleader’s vindictive mom in small-town America, deepfakes are rapidly becoming a part of our societal milieu.
But no deepfake has yet fooled large numbers of viewers and caused meaningful real-world damage in the realm of U.S. politics. Let’s hope it stays that way in 2022.
Continue reading: https://www.forbes.com/sites/robtoews/2021/12/05/2021-ai-predictions-what-we-got-right-and-wrong/?sh=f0a18ce1f8d8
